There is no reason to doubt Holzken. Since 2010 he has been nearly unstoppable, punishing and brutalizing everyone placed in front of him like a well-groomed, excessively tattooed steamroller. The unfortunate wisdom awaiting his opponents on tape to prepare against him is not if he will knock you out but often when and whether it will arrive via left body hook or driving right cross. However, the surprise of an upset ensures that it will never die in our collective imagination and there have been a lot to relish inside and outside of kickboxing the last few years, and no doubt as they have a place in our memories for their defiance of our expectations, they should also be evoked to inform our interpretations of similarly considered mismatches.
No one, to my knowledge, has faithfully articulated a rationale argument for anyone other than Holzken to prevail tonight at Glory 19. Fraser Coffeen of Bloody Elbow, for example elevated the ability of Holzken’s first round opponent, Alexander Stetsurenko, to the standard of withstanding Holzken’s punishment for the full three rounds, yet did not forward the realistic possibility he would pull out the win.
Predictions are meant to be logical. It is the only way to survive.
And despite the proliferation of upsets recently and within the last few years, they do not become any more logical. Thus the only reasonable conclusion is that Holzken demolishes his opposition tonight per his superior craft and power, for once an expectation becomes reasonable it ceases to be an upset.
Chances are Holzken sends everyone out on stretchers, and then, to the salivating imaginations of fight fans everywhere, turns his attention to his assured rematch against Valtellini, but it should be considered far from a guarantee.
It might be wise for us to learn that by now, even if we’re destined to be wrong.